Thursday, September 29, 2011

Week 5 - Auburn @ South Carolina:

Well, it's finally almost Saturday again, which means time for Auburn football again. This time we hit the road to the state of South Carolina for the second time this year to face the 'Cocks. Somewhat new, and sometimes improved.

Argument for why South Carolina will win:
Here's the deal, USC is a vastly improved team defensively, however they're not nearly the caliber of the iron clad defenses that you'll find at the top of the SEC Western division with Bama and LSU. They do have their issues. Their run defense is not that great. Navy isn't the best example to point to, as they are a triple option team and it's just a different world altogether, offensively, from anything they will face. They did a good job shutting down the Vandy running game as well, much of that was because of how unbalanced Vandy's offense is/was. They have no passing game whatsoever, so that allowed USCe to stack the box almost the entire game and just trust that their secondary could cover the Vandy WRs. And they did. That will be Auburn's main battle to fight, we have to remain balanced enough to establish a solid running attack. If South Carolina can key in on the run and they don't have to worry about Trotter unleashing the deep ball, it's going to be a long night for Michael Dyer & Co., as well as the Auburn OL.

Then comes the issue of Auburn having to stop Alshon Jeffery and Marcus Lattimore, certainly not an easy task with this young bunch we have on D. I'll start with Lattimore, who is a top 2-3 Heisman contender at this point in the young season. He is an absolute trainwreck at RB, but he also has good cutting ability and has excellent hands out of the backfield. Auburn did a fantastic job of shutting the USCe run game down early last year, and eventually they abandoned Lattimore altogether (as Spurrier has been known to do). However, this isn't last year's Auburn defensive line. We are loaded with young talent on the interior DL, but they're young. USCe has a veteran offensive line that loves running the football. I believe that our DTs have the ability and talent to combat the Carolina gameplan of running Lattimore, but for that to happen they're going to have to play with much more anger and aggression than what we've seen so far. Plain and simple, if the DL does not get push up front in both the running game and in getting pressure on Garcia, Auburn will lose by 20 points.
On to Jeffery, he might have the best hands in the game. He would be starting for most NFL teams right now. Here's the issue with him, he's not in as good of shape as he has been the past two years. He is listed at 229 lbs on the USC depth chart (insert rolling smiley face). If he's 229 then Cam Newton was 290 lbs. Alshon was every bit of 260 lbs entering the season. He may have lost some of that weight just getting back into playing again, but he's also lost some of his explosiveness as well. He does not get off the line nearly as quickly or aggressively as he did in the past two campaigns. The problem is, even this version of Alshon will be able to run wild on the Auburn defense if he's getting 10-15 yard cushions every play. We have to find someone who doesn't mind getting in his face and getting physical with him if we're going to force Garcia to be perfect.

Argument for why Auburn will win:
It's South Carolina. C'mon man. It's them, ya know, that team that hasn't beaten Auburn since the 1930s in Birmingham. The only team that South Carolina has still failed to get a win against since 1992 when they joined the SEC.
Auburn simply has recruited better athletes on both sides of the ball. Now, South Carolina has certainly done much better at getting premiere athletes since Spurrier has taken over (as evidenced by Gilmore, Jeffery, Lattimore, and Clowney), but certainly not as many as Auburn has gotten in the past 3 classes. While Auburn may not have the experienced pieces that we had last year when we beat USC twice, we still have the exact same coaching staff that came up with that same gameplan that absolutely crushed them in Atlanta last year. If Gus Malzahn decides to take the training wheels off of Trotter and really lets Dyer run the ball 25+ times, I feel we have a great shot of putting up some serious points, particularly with USC's struggles they had against the ECU offense.
The other reason is the much maligned Stephen Garcia. It might actually benefit him to pop open a few cold ones before the game, if he's been clean and sober all year, because he has made horrible decisions with alarming consistency so far. This is exactly the type of performance that Auburn has to get from him if we are going to be able to stop Lattimore. The only issue is, USC is playing at home and Garcia will be able to feed off of that raucous crowd that is clamoring for revenge after losing to Auburn twice last year, including a blowout loss in their first ever SEC Championship game. The upside for Auburn is, those same crazed fans will turn on Garcia in a heartbeat if he starts making the same decisions he has made so far this year. They're already unhappy with his results so far, so a poor early showing against a team you want revenge against may just be the antidote needed for an angry group of Cocks.

What will happen:
In my opinion, I feel that Garcia will look very sharp early, hitting the passes that Auburn is giving him as we try to stack the box and make Garcia beat us. USC will get out to an early lead of about 21-7, but Auburn will fight our way back into the game and get within a TD at 24-17 after Garcia makes a few mistakes that our offense is able to take advantage of. However I feel that we'll maybe end up coming up just a few plays short and possibly drop this game on the road. (but I sure as hell hope I'm wrong)

Predicted Score:
31-28 USC

Sunday, September 25, 2011

Post-Game review: Auburn 30 - FAU 14

First of all, a win is a win.

And judging by the next 4 games on our schedule, we'll take all of 'em we can. When all of the pundits who viewed Auburn as a team that was too young and had too difficult of a schedule to do anything meaningful this season, this is the stretch they pointed to. At South Carolina, at Arkansas, Florida at home, then at LSU to wrap up. What the hell? Ridiculous!

So, like I said, we'll take 'em where we can.

Offensively,
this is about as disappointing of a game as I've watched under Gus Malzahn's incredible run here. I understand that we have to get the ball to our playmakers at WR quickly, but even I was able to call out "WR screen to Reed" every other play and be correct. The screen game is effective only if the running game and/or deep passing game is effective. Neither of those were being executed effectively by Auburn. To me, it appears that Trotter is hesitant to make the deep throws to anyone other than Emory Blake (who has been incredible so far). I'm not sure whether he doesn't trust what he sees or if he's just scared to throw picks, but there were several times that there were receivers running open in the first half and he checked down to the easy short throw to the RB or H-Back for a short gain or loss. I understand that Trotter is not Cam Newton, but Trotter did win this job as Auburn's starting QB for a reason. He has the ability to stretch the field. We saw this much was true in the A-Day game this spring. I know, don't take too much from that, but we saw he can put throws on the money deep. This has to be done over the next 4 weeks for us to have any chance to give Dyer room to run the ball. Some people will wonder why we didn't run Dyer 30 times against them, not me. He needs to be healthy and fresh for these next 4 weeks, because I envision him carrying the ball probably close to or over 100 times this next month. On the other side, this should give Auburn's WRs a little more room to make plays if they bring an extra safety into the box, but Trotter has to trust what he sees and make accurate throws.

Grade: C-

Now for Defense:
As I mentioned in one of my articles last week, I like the idea of simplifying the defense to allow the young athletes we do have to play faster. It looked like we were playing faster out there. I'd rather have 11 guys on the same page on an okay defensive call than 10 guys on the same page on a great call (which is what we'd been seeing weeks 1-3). I feel like we really did make progress this week. We actually made a few plays, which will help the confidence of this young team. And, I was very, very impressed with the play of young DBs, Jermaine Whitehead and Robenson Therezie. Whitehead's interception was the type of play that Auburn fans have been clamoring for, and haven't gotten since probably the 2010 Outback Bowl when McFadden returned the pick for a TD 100+ yards. He read the route, broke on the ball, and made a 1 on 1 "I'm better than you" play on the ball. This is something I hope to see more of.

Unfortunately, even though I love T'Sharvan Bell, I don't know if we will because Bell is consistently out of position and probably gets out of his breaks slower than any of the other DBs on the team. The problem is, he's smart and is one of the few vocal leaders we have on defense. I'd like to see more out of him and see him take the next step from how he played at the end of last year, but he appears to have gone a little backwards......and so has our defense overall.

Another alarming problem I noticed was that we weren't able to get any push at all across the DL against FAU. That's sad, and quite frankly, pathetic. I don't care anymore if these kids are young, they've had 3, now 4, games to figure out what to expect in D1 football on the DL. FAU was able to consistently gash our defense for decent chunks of yardage on the ground, and rarely were we ever able to get any pressure on the QB. Once again, pathetic. We have vastly superior athletes to what FAU can offer up, so I expected the DL to be able to pad some stats and get 3-4 sacks at least. Corey Lemonier was pretty much the only guy that was able to do so. With Dee Ford out, I really expected LaDarius Owens to be able to put up a great performance out there as well, but he seemed to get swallowed up anytime an OL got his hands on him. This is an area that has to improve, or else Garcia, Wilson, Brantley, and Lee will eat us alive in October.

Grade: B

Finally we take a look at Special Teams.
Cody Parkey, you're the MVP of the Auburn football team so far this year. He is, single-handedly, able to eliminate any threat of a ST play by the opposition turning the game around after an Auburn score. He has an absolutely huge leg, and has been exceptional on FGs. We can only hope that he performs the same way on the road this coming month in big, loud atmospheres. Steven Clark has done a very, very good job as well. Overall I'm happy with him too.

The one issue that we're having so far with special teams, is punt returns. Trovon Reed has eliminated that good ole' feeling of "oh God please just catch the ball". Okay, so that's done. Now we need to actually give him a little room to do his magic. He's absolutely electric and can make you miss in a phone booth, but he can only make 3-4 guys miss (rolls eyes) before the help will eventually wrap him up. He can't make any moves upfield because of how quickly guys are in his face. This isn't too bad of an issue though, all thing considered.

Grade: A

Overall
not a horrible game, just kind of "meh" to be honest. Defensively, I feel we progressed. We were good on ST. Offensively, I was horribly disappointed. Playcalling has to be better there. We also got out without any major injuries.

Grade: B

I'm very happy that we're the CBS game next week, hopefully that kind of stage is something that will bring out the players on our team. One thing is for sure, we certainly have a scary schedule for the month that brings Halloween!

WDE!

Friday, September 23, 2011

Things that have stood out in CFB so far.......

#1- The SEC has some incredible defenses this year-
In case you haven't noticed Bama and LSU have, what could be, two of the best defenses that have been put together since the SEC expanded to 12 teams (last time I'll use the word expansion, I promise). There is not a single weakness in either of those defenses. Period. But, just behind these two teams, is UF. UF's defense has been one of the more athletic looking teams in the country so far. They have elite players all over the defensive line. The one issue with UF's defense is the youth they have in the secondary, see starting corner Marcus Roberson. However, Roberson has definitely shown flashes of absolute brilliance. I, for one, was disappointed when Auburn decided not to accept his commitment, but he's going to be an elite corner in the SEC eventually. And 8 pass interference or holding calls won't cut it most of the time but, on the bright side, most of the teams in the SEC won't be throwing as much as UT did on UF. I know this particular subject is pretty painful to us Auburn fans right now with our porous defense, but there's no denying what I've seen on the field from these 3 teams on D.

#
2- There are at least five or six teams that look like National Championship teams-

Wisconsin, to me, the most impressive team so far. They certainly have a team built for it. They have an elite QB in Russell Wilson, two stud RBs in Montee Ball and James White, a beast at WR in Nick Toon, and a very good and veteran OL to go with a very good defense.
Oklahoma is next on my list. They went into a very loud and amped up atmosphere at FSU last week, and while their offense didn't dominate like some thought they would, they played good enough to get out with a top 5 road win (a major struggle under Stoops). No major flaws in OU, outside of maybe an everydown running game, but that may have been solved by walk-on RB Dominique Whaley.
LSU is number 3 for me. They have one of the fastest defensive lines I've ever seen. I thought that they may be a little too thin at the defensive end spots to stop the run well, but they play such good team defense that there just isn't anything that LSU gives up on D. The biggest question, to me, is can Jarrett Lee keep managing the offense as well as he has and will Jordan Jefferson be a team player and not destroy the chemistry the team is building with Lee at the helm. If those two things happen, LSU has a very good chance to hoist their 3rd crystal ball.
Bama is number 4. What else can be said about them except for, "damn that defense is good". They give up NOTHING. They refuse to give you the short passes, yet are able to stop you from going deep. They want to stop you from throwing deep, yet can still stop the run. This, to me, is Saban's best defense that he's put together. The only issue with this team, is can the OL hold up against better defensive lines like UF and LSU, and can AJ McCarron actually go out and put the offense on his shoulders to get a win (because he's going to have to do that at some point). He has the talent, he just has to continue to avoid the big mistake.

#3- The Coaching Hot Seats are getting hotter, quicker-
Several coaches are literally coaching with, what seems like, game by game contracts. None is more evident than Houston Dale Nutt, coach at Ole Miss. The BYU loss was tough, but not what most would consider a "bad" loss, as their defense did play very well. But, the 30-7 beating at the hands of Vandy is unacceptable to Ole Miss fans. They've become the "Vandy of the West" under Nutt, except they are actually worse than Vandy of the East. Nutt faces a must win this week when........
Georgia head coach Mark Richt brings his 1-2 bulldogs to Oxford. This is coach #2 on the hot seat list. The loss to Boise St. was ugly, and essentially was a home loss. I like Mark Richt, but he may have simply just worn out his welcome. Sometimes a change is just necessary for the sake of change. One thing is for sure, the grass isn't always greener......BUT, I can tell you that if UGA makes the right hire and completely closes off their borders from a recruiting standpoint, that program has the potential to become truly elite year in-year out.

Thursday, September 22, 2011

Why I like what we, supposedly, are now doing on defense.......

As any good football coach knows, players who think are slow no matter how fast they run. Players who react and go, play fast no matter how slow they run. This is our problem. We have athletes in the entire 2 deep, but they don't understand the entire playbook yet and haven't shown they can play assignment football yet as a whole.

This is where the coaching switch supposedly is being made.....

The coaches' new plans on defense are to simplify things so that the athletes can stop thinking so much and just go play. I, for one, love this idea because we're playing against FAU, who we can simply "out-athlete". This gives us a game for the young players to not have to worry so much about their assignments and really just go out there and play football. Now, this "simple" defense won't really work against the more intricate offenses we may face in Arkansas, UF, or even South Carolina at times. But against the teams like LSU, Bama, and UGA this may work and allow us to play fast again.

Gone are the days where we have to rely on defense to win games every week. Our offensive recruiting and offensive coordinator have taken care of that. We just need to hold teams to 27 or less points on a somewhat consistent basis. That's it. Something that I feel is absolutely possible, by the defenders knowing what they need to do, and doing it FAST.

Offensive recruiting so far for the 2012 class.........

Talk about a polar opposite of defense so far, for the most part.

Our offensive recruiting class so far absolutely rivals any 2012 offensive class out there. It has all of the symptoms of another elite group.

It has an elite triggerman in Ky. QB Zeke Pike, who made the Elite 11 recently, which was particularly impressive considering his skillset and "rawness" don't really translate to the "wow" factor in 7 on 7 or t-shirt and shorts summer football world. He has an insane amount of upside as a QB, and given a year to redshirt and work on his mechanics and learn the speed of the game, he could be special taking over after Kiehl Frazier has done his work at Auburn.

Running back.....WOW. Jovon Robinson, beast. Plain and simple. He's a premier every down type of running back that any pro-style offense would dream of. He's 6'1, 215-220 lbs and is grown man strong and has incredible cutting ability for a kid of his size. He was one of the very first guys that Alabama offered last year for the 2012 class, but grade concerns scared some teams off. He's fine in that department so it looks like any team that passed on him, he'll make pay later. Now on to TJ Yeldon. Plain and simple, he's the most dynamic back with the most upside in the 2012 class. Period. He's 6'2, 205 lbs with enough speed, great cutting and elusiveness, and the best set of hands that one particular analyst for Rivals had ever seen on a running back. He's in contention to receive a 5th star from Rivals during either their November evaluation (they will see him next month at Daphne) or during their final update after seeing him at the Army All American game and practices. With Dyer, McCalebb, Tre Mason, Mike Blakely, and Corey Grant (all 4 or 5*) all currently on campus, I don't think I will have ever seen a team with this much talent at RB (maybe someone could move to defense??) outside of maybe one of the USC groups in the mid 2000s.

Moving on to Wide Receiver.
Jaquay Williams is a monster. He's very quick out of his breaks and really "picks" the ball out of the air using his big hands. Jaquay didn't do much of the camps and 7 on 7s this summer, but at the one he did, he dominated DBs such as, Alabama commit, Geno Smith. Rivals is going to watch him friday night and if he has another night like he's been having all year, he should move back into the Rivals100.
Ricardo Louis is just an all around athlete. He needs to work on catching the ball better if he is to become a real contributor and stay on the offensive side of the ball. But, he's an incredible talent and one of the better overall athletes in the class.
Regarding who we pickup, I don't think we HAVE to take anymore WR, BUT I feel that we're in very, very good shape to land 5* Stefon Diggs from Maryland. Other possibilities are #1 overall JUCO prospect, WR Cordarelle Patterson, who is taking an OV to Auburn this weekend, and #1 overall HS prospect WR Dorial Green-Beckham. DGB is a longshot and recently released a top 5 that did NOT include Auburn, which surprised many AU fans considering most of the info we've heard was that he had informed our staff that we're getting an Official visit. We'll see how that plays out shortly I'm sure...
UPDATE: JC Shurbutt of 247sports did confirm to me just now that DGB does, in fact, have Auburn in his top 5 and we will receive an official visit from him!

Darrion Hutcherson and Ricky Parks make up the best TE duo of any 2012 class as well. Hutcherson has unlimited potential trapped in a rare 6'7, 245 lb frame. He could project a number of different positions. Ricky Parks plays QB for his HS at 6'3, 245 lbs, but he will likely play H-Back and TE/slot WR at Auburn. He is another guy that I'd consider as one of the premier pure "athletes" in the 2012 class. It would even shock me if Parks somehow ended up playing LB with his incredible blend of size and speed. His hands are so good though. He is another guy that fell out of the R100 recently, but only because he hadn't been re-evaluated. He is a top100 talent though.

Now to the trenches. Some believe that the OL is one of the bigger needs on the team. I'm not really in agreement of that. We have our LT of the future in Greg Robinson, a potential RT replacement for Brandon Moseley in either Chad Slade or Christian Westerman (whoever isn't RT will play OG), a TrFR Center in Reese Dismukes, and Eric Mack has a bright future as a current RsFR at OG. So, we're set for a good while on the OL. We do need depth though. Shane Callahan is vastly underrated and play with anger and has incredible work ethic. You can watch his workouts on YouTube, it's sick. Then we picked up some immediate depth with the top JUCO lineman in the 2012 class, OT Will Latu, who was a verbal to West Va. until Auburn came in and took him! Other than those, Auburn is in great shape to land Vadal Alexander at OG or OT and could also land DJ Reader and/or Matt Cochran (OG/C). Auburn will hold a spot on the OL for the likes of 5* Andrus Peat, Joshua Garnett, Avery Young, Jordan Diamond, and Ronnie Stanley. I think we will land 1 from that group along with Alexander and Cochran to round out our OL class.

All in all, we'll have (yet again) one of the most impressive Offensive classes in the country, which isn't unusual for this staff. On the brighter side, our 2013 class already is shaping up to be one that could be loaded, defensively for a change, which we be a nice change of pace and much needed.

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Defensive recruiting so far for the 2012 class........

seriously, what the hell is going on right now? (by the way this should be freakin' hilarious to go back on and look at on NSD b/c we will end up with a great class) We have loads of PT to offer on the defensive line and at LB, but we've only got 2 DL committed and 1 LB (albeit a beast of a LB in Cassanova McKinzy).

First a little of the good.....I believe that Josh Holsey has the best ball skills (shut up) of any cover corner in the 2011 class. He has consistently outperformed higher rated kids at camps and combines. Also very happy with Jonathan Jones, who I also feel is a very underrated prospect, and TJ Davis had offers from virtually everyone and will be a real player after he gets a RS year under his belt.

Tyler Nero is a monster at DT as well, but he could use a year to redshirt, I believe. But, we HAVE to start getting ourselves in position to land some combination of guys from this list:

Leonard Williams (UF leads), Eddie Goldman (FSU probably leads), Channing Ward (in-state pressure), and Jordan Jenkins (UF-Bama lead and we're 3rd).

Now for the rant....We need immediate impact guys all over the place at LB and I believe that McKinzy certainly fits that mold. The issue I have is, our other top targets at LB are Javierre Mitchell (6'2, 200) and Kwon Alexander (6'2, 215). Alexander could've been an instant impact guy, but unfortunately tore his ACL and may need a RS year to get back to 100% before he could really contribute in the SEC at LB. He needs to gain a little weight as well. With Mitchell, he needs to redshirt, period. He's too small to play LB right now.

So, in summary, we have an immediate need at LB and our top 2 targets are guys that will probably need to redshirt. Doesn't make any sense to me, but I also don't get paid 6 or 7 figures for my opinions and solutions.

First..........

first of all, saying "first" after someone releases an article is strictly forbidden on this blog. It's seriously the dumbest thing in the free world. So don't do it.

I'm extremely new to blogging (so new that I've never done it), so bare with me while I figure it out, but hopefully it will be entertaining or fun to laugh at, at the very least. Hopefully you enjoy run-on sentences as well, as I'm pretty much the shit at those.

Basically I'll be putting out updates on rumors, rumblings, and events going on in the Auburn recruiting and football world. I'm a recruiting nut so that will hopefully give me enough stuff to blog about during the offseason, but thank God we're in season right now.

P.S.- I hate Conference Expansioin